Incumbent Republican Martha McSally faces Astronaut and husband of Gabrielle Giffords Mark Kelly. Who will win?

Incumbent Republican Martha McSally faces Astronaut and husband of Gabrielle Giffords Mark Kelly. Who will win?
2018 Arizona Senatorial scenario – created using admin’s 2018 Arizona map, and DallasD’s 2016 Senatorial scenario.
Candidates –
This campaign features no events yet – but has realistic campaign finance figures, percentages, and campaign surrogates.